Market gains outpace typical midterm-year pattern despite recent volatility

The S&P 500 was up 11.6% for the year through Aug. 20, even after a sharp market decline, compared with an average 1.3% loss at the same point in midterm election years from 1954 through 2022.

Historical data show the index has risen during the 12 months after every midterm election since 1954, although past performance does not guarantee future results. Researchers attribute typical pre-election weakness to uncertainty over government policy, followed by gains after the election outcome is known.

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