Congressional swing seats drop to 37 as redistricting reshapes House races

The number of competitive U.S. House districts has fallen to 37, down from 45, as partisan redistricting and voter sorting continue to erode swing seats. This decline accelerates a long-term trend where the majority of House races are effectively decided in primaries rather than general elections, limiting voter accountability to a narrow group of competitive districts.

In North Carolina, the 13th Congressional District illustrates this shift. After Democrats narrowly won the seat in 2022, Republican-controlled state lawmakers redrew the map into an hourglass shape that replaced urban Democratic voters with rural counties. The change allowed Republican Brad Knott to win by more than 70,000 votes in 2024, transforming a former battleground into a safe GOP seat.

Political scientists and campaign strategists note that with only 37 competitive seats remaining, the November 2026 midterm elections will feature a significantly narrowed battlefield. While Democrats are targeting additional races due to economic concerns and the Iran conflict, experts warn that the structural decline in competitive districts will likely result in a less accountable and more polarized Congress.

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