India’s central bank expected to hold rates as inflation risks rise
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep key policy interest rates unchanged during its August monetary policy review as inflation risks build from energy and food prices.
The Monetary Policy Committee is meeting from August 3 to 5, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra due to announce the decision on August 5. The RBI has kept the repo rate at 5.25% this year after cutting it by 125 basis points in 2025.
India’s retail inflation rose to 4.38% in June, above the RBI’s 4% medium-term target for the first time in 17 months. Wholesale inflation climbed to 9.87%, a two-year high, with energy and food prices driving both measures.
Analysts cited uncertainty tied to the West Asia conflict, volatile oil prices, rupee pressure and a below-normal monsoon. The RBI has also lowered its April-June 2026 growth projection from 6.9% to 6.6% across its last three policy reviews.
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