CPI and ASML earnings drive market expectations on October 14

The U.S. Consumer Price Index report is a key market event on October 14, as it could shape expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates. Investors are watching the monthly core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices to give a clearer view of underlying inflation. Forecasts from major banks range from 0.16% to 0.24%, with a median estimate of around 0.21%. Core CPI rose 0.29% in August, and a reading below expectations could ease pressure on rates, supporting stock prices, especially if bond yields fall.

ASML’s earnings report is the second major event that could influence the stock market today. The Dutch company supplies advanced equipment used to manufacture semiconductors, making its results important for the wider chip industry. Analysts expect quarterly revenue of around €13.2 billion, compared with €7.5 billion in the same quarter last year. Earnings per share estimates range from €10.50 to $10.58, according to the figures cited in the market analysis.

In its previous guidance, ASML forecast revenue of €11 billion to €12 billion and a gross margin of 55% to 57%. The company reported €9.3 billion in revenue and a 54% gross margin in the second quarter, exceeding its revenue and margin guidance. Investors will look beyond the latest earnings to ASML’s outlook for 2027 and 2028, assessing whether the company can expand production to meet demand for chipmaking equipment as semiconductor manufacturers invest in new facilities. Strong results and an improved outlook could support semiconductor and AI-related stocks, while weaker guidance or concerns about production capacity could weigh on the sector.

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