AI spending May be masking slower S&P 500 earnings growth

Goldman Sachs said the artificial-intelligence investment boom accounted for nearly half of S&P 500 earnings growth this year, but that boost is likely to fade next year even if companies keep increasing capital spending.

The bank expects slower growth over the next two years as semiconductor profit-margin expansion cools and income from private investments contributes less. Goldman said removing that other income entirely could reduce 2027 S&P 500 earnings growth by 8 percentage points relative to 2026, all else equal.

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