Diesel export ban could lower U.S. prices but raise gasoline costs

A U.S. Ban on diesel exports could initially lower American diesel prices by about 25 cents a gallon, or 4%, while raising European wholesale prices by about $3 a barrel, Goldman Sachs analysts said. European strategic reserves could offset roughly half the expected increase.

The analysts said a prolonged ban could fill U.S. Diesel storage, squeeze refining margins and reduce refinery output. Because refiners produce diesel and gasoline together, U.S. Retail gasoline prices could eventually rise by about 30 cents a gallon. Goldman described the ban as plausible but not its base case.

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