Democrats poised to retake House and Senate in 2026 midterms, could check Trump’s agenda

Forecasts from Decision Desk HQ show Democrats have a 76‑percent chance of retaking the U.S. House of Representatives and a 57‑percent chance of gaining the Senate in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. A Democratic majority would give the party the purse power needed to check President Trump’s agenda over the next two years.

Trump’s first‑term executive actions, including Executive Order 14148 on inauguration day 2025, rescinded 78 Biden‑era orders and memoranda. In March he added further measures, such as a minimum‑wage increase for federal contractors. Legislative rollback followed with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on July 4, 2025, which cut most clean‑energy tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act and used the Congressional Review Act to strike down 22 Biden‑era rules.

A Democratic House would close the legislative route to further rollback of Biden‑era measures, while a Senate majority would enable the party to influence budgetary legislation and initiate impeachment proceedings. Oversight, investigation, and appropriations riders would also be more effective under a unified Democratic Congress, potentially limiting Trump’s second‑term legacy.

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