Supreme Court’s latest mail ballot ruling sets stage for 2028 election

The Supreme Court’s recent patchwork of election‑related decisions gives the public scant clues of how the justices would act if faced with a crucial dispute this fall that would definitively settle which party controls Congress or what to expect in 2028. Monday’s unsigned order rejected President Donald Trump’s plan to let the US Postal Service possibly refuse to deliver ballots, and an earlier June decision similarly rejected an attempt to foist new rules on mail‑in ballots. The two‑sentence order was cryptic, but it set the stage for further litigation and for the 2028 presidential election cycle.

Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s concurrence on Monday suggested an openness to letting the Postal Service control ballots in the future, perhaps for the 2028 presidential election cycle. Washington lawyer Donald Verrilli said on Tuesday that he anticipates continued legal conflict around mail‑in ballots, and that the “drumbeat is in the air,” reinforced by Alito’s dissent. The nine justices, dominated by six conservatives, have moved haltingly through cases, indicating concern about chaos for voters but also hewing to their established priorities.

State election officials, voting‑rights advocates and political operatives have been closely anticipating how the Supreme Court might affect this year’s midterms and possibly lay groundwork for the presidential election in 2028. Disputed state electoral practices have become a staple of the justices’ docket and will likely continue through – and possibly after – the November 3 elections. The House of Representatives and Senate are currently controlled by Republicans, and Democrats have a chance to flip at least the House and maybe both chambers.

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