Social Security raise could reach 3.5% in 2027, estimates suggest

Independent estimates put Social Security’s 2027 cost-of-living adjustment at 3.4% to 3.6%, with an average projection of 3.5%. That would tie for the sixth-largest increase in the past 35 years and mark six straight years with raises of at least 2.5%.

Higher consumer prices linked to tariffs and energy costs are contributing to the projections. The official adjustment will be announced in October.

The increase may not fully translate into higher take-home payments for retirees because Medicare Part B premiums are deducted from many Social Security checks. Part B premiums have risen faster than Social Security’s annual adjustment in each of the past three years.

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